Rasmussen has McCain leading Obama in the EC for the first time this election season. The Minnesota polls from the Star-Tribune just started rolling in, and it’s a dead heat. Now, if you reference my earlier post about the Rasmussen Electoral College, you’ll notice that Minnesota was in the Likely Democrat zone. If Minnesota is moving over, what’s that say for anything that’s leaning Democrat? Or other “Likely Democrat” states? Iowa is certainly going to go over to McCain. McCain trails Obama by 2% in Washington (!). In Pennsylvania, Obama leads by 2%. McCain was down by 8% in New Jersey August 8th. We know there’s been a national swing towards McCain, so we can safely assume all numbers for McCain will go up. If McCain can pull 4% independents from Obama in New Jersey, that will put the two of them tied– in New Jersey!
If Obama is having a hard time securing usually-safe locks like New Jersey and Pennsylvania, his campaign is in shambles. And with less than two months left, there’s going to have to be one hell of an October Surprise to wreck McCain’s momentum.
I see what you mean. The polls are pretty hard to predict. Wrote a post in response. http://culturedecoded.wordpress.com/2008/09/14/what-is-up-with-the-polls/
pacer521
Remember Obama’s phone call to the guys in San Francisco? That ‘tude is what’s hurting him in those states. If I were McCain, I’d be playing it 24/7.
When I first heard the recording, I had a flashback to high school. He was the kid dissing his uncool friends (rural) to get in with the cool kids (in SF) all over again. I know that tone of voice. So do others.
So, ya’ll put down your guns and booze for a moment, stumble out out of the church and into the voting booth.
Easy, fella.
This is still the “bounce” from the Convention, to a large degree.
But remember the “Wilder Effect.” That is the poll-problem where the pollee SAYS he/she will be openminded and vote for the black guy–and go into the booth and NOT vote for the black guy.
If the Wilder Effect holds true, Obama’s truly doomed. However, I think it’s likely we’ll see numbers close to what’s being polled on election day. I’ll be very depressed if the Wilder Effect shows up.