Dicatorships for Dummies

There are three dictatorships rising in the world (one’s rather old, but it’s worth a look) that are “new” to a degree but still consolidate power under one central source, and I thought it would be worthwhile to look at how they came to power.

1) Venezuela and Hugo Chavez: All democracy shams aside, Chavez is putting his Populist posterior in for life, and he’s getting there through a very familiar source: demonization of a convenient enemy. Chavez is now warning people that the US is going to invade the country, annex the oil, and turn the population over to Guantanimo medical researchers for experiments on making robot slaves. Maybe not the last part. But the rest is true. Some are even reporting that Hugo is planning an invasion with all of the recent orders of Russian military equipment. (The Purple Avenger says it’s Curaco, and I wouldn’t doubt it considering Hugo’s buying submarines.)

Hugo’s been demonizing the West for a while, cleverly selling us the oil we so desperately need. He knows there’s no invasion anytime soon, but it’s a clever front for selling massive arms purchases to his loyal fans. And the opposition? Quietly suppressed. I wonder how many have been secretly arrested. But you won’t hear that on Common Dreams. They’re all thinking, “My God, Chavez is right! Bush is going to invade Venezeula!” (In their defense, they think Bush is going to invade everyone at some point of time.)

But let’s go through the dictator checklist for Chavez. Consolidation of power? Check. Easy enemy to blame all nations problems on? Check. Suppression of the opposition? Check.

All that’s missing is an appointment as Leader for Life, and I have a sneaking suspicion that can’t be more than a year away.

2) Russia. Vladimir Putin, duly elected ex-KGB President of Russia has been slowly rebuilding the Kremlin into an institution with one sole purpose– energy domination of Asia through the national company Gazprom. I’ve been blogging about Gazprom for a while, and their energy resources are large enough that they can influence policy in other nations. They’re even planning on energy deliveries to the UK, which I counter with a “No, don’t do it!” Oil, natural gas, coal– it runs the region. And let’s face it, natural resources are the only industry that Russia can compete with on a global level.

When Russia started seizing (I mean, nationalizing) foreign-based oil and gas platforms, you had to think something was up. And indeed, something is up.

Putin has even been eliminating people who could be costly for him. Polonium poisoning? Wow.

He plans on stepping down at the end of his current term (there’s a two-term limit), but he hasn’t ruled out a 2012 return to office. In the meantime, he and his party can prop up a useful idiot to do their bidding, all the while having Putin pulling the strings. In the meantime, Gazprom grows larger, slowly consolidating all Eurasian energy sources and making the region dependent upon its untapped natural resources.

As for a common enemy, Putin’s been putting it to the West for a variety or reasons, and he’s probably selling it big back home with his controlled media. The US is an old enemy, so the sell isn’t hard, and people will rally behind their nationalistic dreams.

Dicatorship checklist: Consolidation of power? Check. Demonizing a common enemy? Check. Suppression of opposition/press? Check. Dictator for life? No, but that doesn’t mean he’s not running things from the shadows– a perfect place for an ex-KGBer.

3) Iran and Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. This is a little tougher to call, as Mahmoud has certainly lost much popularity recently. One important facet of a successful rise to power to make sure the people think they’re better off after you’ve taken over.

Mahmoud is certainly sticking it to the Jews, and he and his hard-line Islamist religious backers have made no secret of their disdain for Israel. The common enemy is an old one and easy to rally against, but the economy has really suffered under the diversion of infrastructure to the nuclear program. Gas prices have skyrocketed and there’s been a crackdown on the “un-Islamic” in their nation. Unfortunately, you don’t score many points when you’re arresting suspected Israeli spies and women who aren’t being as totally modest as they should be at the same time. The moral equivalency falls flat, and it really seems to resonate with the Iranian people.

Mahmoud was very popular at first, and his rise to dictatorship seemed to be fast-tracked by the clerics and people. He consolidated power (well, the power was pretty much already centralized), suppressed opposition, and controlled the press, especially the foreign press who called him a “master diplomat”. But he hasn’t secured the population yet, and until he does, he’s going to have problems that could culminate in a revolution. The “modesty patrols” are the tip of the iceberg– those who aren’t hardcore Muslims in the eyes of the Ayatollahs are going to be the first who are rounded up. And guess who aren’t hardcore Islamists? People who don’t wear the traditional clothing.

So begins the crackdown on the rabble who oppose Mahmoud and his Clerics. Will there be a subsequent revolution? Only time will tell.

From Russia with Love

Our favorite ex-KGB agent, Vladimir Putin, is in the news and following up with his strategy for domination of Europe and Asia through energy market manipulation.

Putin made calls this week to scrap the architecture of the G8 (a funny thing to say while attending a G8 summit) to include other nations, mainly China. It’s a reasonable request, actually, as China has certainly progressed to the head of the world economic stage. In addition, it’s reasonable to consolidate the UK, France, Italy and Germany into one unit to represent the EU.

But why is Vladimir so eager to get China recognition? It boils down to energy.

China’s energy demands are skyrocketing. One estimate said the Chinese are building one coal-fired energy plant a week in 2007. I’m sure Al Gore’s not too happy about that, but if China wants to be an industrialized partner in the G8, it needs energy to support the 1.2 billion people and the economy that comes with them.

Russia has been strategically consolidating regional power assets in Gazprom, and it’s something I’ve been blogging about for a while now. By putting a stranglehold on natural gas, oil, and coal resources (and trust me, Russia is full of them), Russia can control other states by controlling their energy needs.

Putting all of your eggs into one basket isn’t a smart move, and the Eastern European nations, as well as some Asian nations, have diversified their energy needs to other companies. However, Putin has been making great strides in absorbing those assets into Gazprom. We’ve already gotten a taste of how he’ll act when he has even more control of foreign energy markets. And if he can exert control over China using energy as a lever, then he’ll do so.

Putin knows this is a long-term goal, which is why he’s not going to step down anytime soon. He’s a patriot who wants Russia to do well, but he’s stuck in a Kremlin mindset. He won’t be happy unless Russia is doing well, and it will be doing well when it drives its neighbors to their knees. So he may have a puppet in office for four years, but don’t expect any deviation from Putin’s policies. Otherwise he may get a polonium salad.

Big Gas in Russia

In this case, railing against Big Petroleum in Russia may be worthwhile:

At their first meeting with journalists since taking over Russia’s largest independent radio news network, the managers had startling news of their own: from now on, they said, at least 50 percent of the reports about Russia must be “positive.”

In addition, opposition leaders could not be mentioned on the air and the United States was to be portrayed as an enemy, journalists employed by the network, Russian News Service, say they were told by the new managers, who are allies of the Kremlin.

How would they know what constituted positive news?

“When we talk of death, violence or poverty, for example, this is not positive,” said one editor at the station who did not want to be identified for fear of retribution. “If the stock market is up, that is positive. The weather can also be positive.”

In a darkening media landscape, radio news had been a rare bright spot. Now, the implementation of the “50 percent positive” rule at the Russian News Service leaves an increasingly small number of news outlets that are not managed by the Kremlin, directly or through the state national gas company, Gazprom, a major owner of media assets.

The three national television networks are already state controlled, though small-circulation newspapers generally remain independent.

Putin knows that economic power is far more potent in the 21st Century than military power, especially when it’s competing with China for those resources. Putin figures if he has Europe over a barrel, so speak, they’ll be able to exercise a great deal of local influence.

But when the US comes out against your pet petroleum project (Gazprom) and its attempt to consolidate local energy sources, you need to silence them. How do you do that? Control the media and paint the US as an enemy.

Anyone concerned yet?

Blog Break

Sorry for the lack of posting lately. I’ve been swamped with work, and the wife has gone to Michigan for the weekend and I’m in charge of the kids.

I have a reaction to the whole “Imus” debacle about halfway written.

While you’re waiting, check out Barack Obama condemning the misogynists rappers by comparing them to Imus.

Chavez is following in the steps of Russia and is nationalizing his oil. And he’s going to use his military to enforce his seizures of private property. I’m wondering what his stance on Kelo is…?

New Jersey governor Jon Corzine was seriously hurt in a car accident. Hope your recovery is swift, governor.

A great piece about conspiracy theorists is over at Eject Eject Eject.

More later, folks.

Kow-towing to the Energy Bully

Everyone needs fuel. It’s the lifeblood of the modern economy. And China needs it in spades.

And now they march to their neighbors to the north to “request’ (beg) for energy, and that comes from the teat of Gazprom, Putin’s pet fuel conglomerate that has been seizing private fields and choking the supplies to neighboring countries dependent upon its rich fuel reserves.

Russia’s latest move? To squeeze Iran to do its bidding, or get no aid with its nuclear program. Iran has invested heavily into the program, and for Russia to leave it high and dry right now would collapse the entire Iranian government structure. They have no choice but to do what Russia says.

As a result, China needs to go beg Russia (not Iran) for use of Iranian oil. Now Russia is the big energy king in the region, just where Putin needs to be, regulating the growth of all of those around them to keep Russia competitive. It’s a brilliant strategy, but it’s dangerous. It is not unfeasible that Russia could provoke a conflict in the area. It all has to be carefully played out with China, and it’s why Hu is going to Russia.

Iran Wants to Host a Persian "Big Brother"

So they’ve got out and picked up 15 English sailors to star. I don’t know why they’re doing it, but when Ahmadinejad shows up in New York to the United Nations and is holding 15 British sailors, I have to wonder if it’s an alternative motive.

Putin Should Play Hold’Em

Because he’d make a dangerous player.

Right now, he’s got Iran over a barrel. He knows it. And he’s using the nuclear fuel as a bargaining chip, and he’s using it at just the right time.

Putin’s not stupid. He knows the true pathway to power is through economic, not military, strength, and he’s trying to keep pace with the industrious Chinese, and the best way to do that is to control the energy the Chinese get.

So Putin is doing what he knows best– get the Iranians “pot-committed”, where they’ve put so much stock in a nuclear program that they have to go “all in” now with the Russians or risk losing their investment and get stuck holding the bag. (Look at what the nuclear pursuit has done to the Iranian economy– to get nothing from essentially bankrupting their country will look very, very bad.)

Putin knows this, and he’s now putting the fuel squeeze on Ahmadinejad and his Ayatollah cronies. If the Iranians don’t agree to Putin’s terms, and I’m thinking a severe discount per bbl of oil shipped to Russia and a limit of fuel sold to China, then he’ll just withdraw the fuel the Iranians need to make their bombs.

Monday Quick Links

Sorry for the lack of posting today. I’m currently administering a test to my intrepid students. Currently feedback is less than positive! Wanted to touch on a few cool items.

• Iran has stopped inspectors from visiting nuclear sites. I think I know the real reason why they’ve been barred– their wives weren’t ready to have the company and demanded the time to tidy the place up! I mean, who can welcome inspectors from the IAEA when you’ve got loose bars of U-235 laying around. Am I right, fellas? I can hear it now: “Ahmed– we can’t have them here! I mean, look at this ratty ol’ burkha I’m wearing. They’ll think I’m some kind of dhimmi!”

• In a bizarre twist, biologists have engineered a mosquito which resists malaria, reducing the transfer risk from infected to non-infected! I don’t know about you, but how about just breeding a mosquito that destroys other mosquitos and doesn’t suck blood? Or how about engineering one that only sucks from discarded bottles of Powerade? I think they’re missing the big picture here.

• And it looks as though they’re getting closer, to a degree, on figuring out just how our molecules were put together 4.0 billion years ago to start the chain of complex life. Scientists think that RNA was a precursor to DNA as far as molecular complexity goes.

• Fresh off of Drudge, looks like having sex, on purpose, to teach your daughter about sex is punishable by prison time for child neglect. I’m trying to wrap my head around that one. Seems anything you do can be neglectful. Child outside a car seat? Go to jail. Child in a car seat but not properly secured? Go to jail. Child is overweight? Go to jail. Child doesn’t get enough time reading “It Takes A Village”? Go to jail. I’m not saying we should be having sex in front of our kids, but suppose they popped in a porno, or worse, just surfed the internet to teach their daughter (albeit very young, pre-pubescent daughter) about sex? Is that neglect? Is teaching your kids about sex harmful? We know our schools want to teach our kids about sex as early as 4th grade, and I was 9 when I was in 4th grade. Should those teachers go to the big house? Isn’t a nanny state just lovely?

Venezuelan Big Oil Gets Bigger!

And it’s all Dick Cheney’s fault!

Not really. But in the frame of “socialist dictator”, just as Russia’s been doing, Hugo Chavez has decided that foreign investors are subject to having their assets seized.

Nothing attracts foreign investment like seizing assets!

The Dreaded Thursday Morning Update

Happy start of Lent to everyone observing. Hope your days are filled with reflection.

The NYT (and basically everyone else under the sun) is highlighting the “infighting” between Hillary and the Messiah (Obama). You can read about the details here. You can also read about the “infighting” between VP Cheney and Sen. John McCain. McCain laid into Rumsfeld for being the worst SecDef ever, and Cheney, who’s been a buddy of Rummy since the Jurassic, stuck up for his friend.

Hardly equal, that infighting. But everyone’s comments, except for Cheney’s, are attempts to garner support for primary elections that are still a good year away.

Sick of it yet? I’m sure we’ll all be come primary time.

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England is pulling out of Iraq. It’s no surprise– this has been in the works for a good year now. But leave it to the WaPo to label it as a “bad-news” story.

Let’s face it, though. The British are supporting parts of Iraq that have been relatively quiet, like Basra. So to redeploy the British troops elsewhere isn’t a bad idea. And if they land in Afghanistan to bolster the NATO forces there, so much the better.

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And HotAir is reporting that Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee (D-Texas) is recommending we sell F-16 parts to Hugo Chavez.

This, of course, will open up equipment shipments to Iran, Syria, and North Korea to bolster their militaries as well.

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I may post more today. I have 40 reports to grade and a proposal to finish, so we’ll see how far I get.