Bush’s approval has hit a whopping 39%! Wow. Crack out the champagne, my boy is back!
Well, it’s an improvement. If he can be in the mid 40’s by late October, that will be fortuitous for the November elections. And with his improvement in numbers, the Republican Senate and House numbers seem to be up and within striking distance of the Democrats. Again, that bodes ill for the Democrats.
The last thing you want is to face a team with momentum going into the playoffs. And it looks like the GOP has some momentum.
But don’t give them any credit. Nor the Bush administration. There are two driving factors:
1) Gas prices. It cannot be denied that Bush’s approval has been up and down with the price of gasoline. What is odd is that he has little to do with the drop in gasoline prices. In fact, nothing to do at all with the rise or drop of the gasoline prices. Regardless, he’s enjoying a bounce from the falling gas prices and the strong economy. Which, for the latter, it’s well deserved. Anyone arguing for a repeal of the Bush Tax Cuts or for reviving the Death Tax is certainly going to be ridiculed as “out of touch”. So much for DNC issue numero uno.
2) Security. While the Bush Administration wrangles the issue of torture, the Democrats are wrangling with the same problem they’ve had sine ’02– what do you do with terrorism?
So far, there’s been no plan offered. That’s bad, because you’ll need a few months to sell it. And November is less than 2 months away. Saying “We’ll do things differently” didn’t help Kerry and it’s not going to assist anyone else. Driving Lieberman into an Independent run is suicide, too. Abandoning Joe has left the GOP there to pick up the pieces. And just like Jim Jeffords jumping the GOP ship, Joe is going to jump to the GOP for support and nice seats on Senate committees when he’s reelected.
I’m beginning to get an inkling of what’s going to happen in November: nothing. I predict that we’re still going to have a 55-44 divide in the Senate, and Lieberman will vote as he always has. But he won’t be giving blanket support to Reid, so expect to see a 56-44 or 55-44 (1 abstain) for party-line votes.