14
Nov
07

New Hampsire and Iowa

The phenomenon of these two states is clear when you consider the polling data that’s coming out of both.

New Hampshire has a more national feel because it’s an open primary. People can cross party lines and vote for whoever they like. McCain was boosted by New Hampshire in 2000. He was doing well until he hit Iowa and South Carolina, where the Republicans rejected him. The reason he did so well in New Hampshire was the reason he’s been such a powerful senator– he appeals to the Right and the Left. The New Hampshire primary is more of a gauge of national sentiment than political sentiment, which then bring us to Iowa.

Iowa runs a caucus, which falls on party boundaries. Only Republicans can vote for Republicans and only Democrats can vote for Democrats. It’s a much better sensor for who’s winning the hearts and minds of their party, but it doesn’t reflect how people are being affected on a national scale.

So let’s look at the New Hampshire voting and see who’s winning: (The poll goes Romney, Giuliani, McCain, Huckabee, Paul and Thompson.  Sorry for the poor image quality.)

Poll Date Romney Giuliani McCain Huckabee Paul Thompson Spread
RCP Average 10/26 – 11/12 32.4 19.8 16.0 7.0 5.4 5.0 Romney +12.6
CBS News/NY Times 11/02 – 11/12 34 16 16 6 8 5 Romney +18.0
Boston Globe 11/02 – 11/07 32 20 17 5 7 3 Romney +12.0
Marist 11/02 – 11/06 34 23 14 7 7 5 Romney +11.0
Rasmussen 11/05 – 11/05 32 17 16 10 4 7 Romney +15.0
American Res. Group 10/26 – 10/29 30 23 17 7 1 5 Romney +7.0

Well, that’s a surprise! (The formatting from a cut & paste from Real Clear Politics, not the results. Nice cod, guys!)

Romney’s got a strong lead, but Ron Paul has 5 percent of the vote? RON PAUL!? That would be independnuts voting. It’s clear from in-party polling that Ron Paul has little support. But this should be a wake up call– an independent run from Ron Paul could certainly hurt a GOP candidate.

Let’s look at Iowa:

Poll Date Romney Huckabee Giuliani Thompson McCain Paul Spread
RCP Average 10/17 – 11/12 30.2 17.4 13.4 9.8 7.8 3.5 Romney +12.8
Strategic Vision (R) 11/09 – 11/12 30 19 12 11 7 5 Romney +11.0
CBS News/NY Times 11/02 – 11/12 27 21 15 9 4 4 Romney +6.0
Zogby 11/06 – 11/07 31 15 11 10 8 4 Romney +16.0
ARG 10/26 – 10/29 27 19 16 8 14 1 Romney +8.0
Univ. of Iowa 10/17 – 10/24 36 13 13 11 6 Romney +23.0

Huckabee is making a strong showing amongst social conservatives who think he’s got the socially conservative goods. Really, people. Do your research. The fact that Huckabee has surpassed Rudy is a surprise, but as we’ve all suspected, Rudy has real problems with social conservatives. It’s not wonder they’re flocking to the Huck. (But why not the Fred!? Two words — better campaigning.)

Now on the Democrat side in New Hampshire:

Poll Date Sample Clinton Obama Edwards Richardson Spread
RCP Average 10/26 – 11/12 36.8 23.0 12.6 7.0 Clinton +13.8
CBS News/NY Times 11/02 – 11/12 279 LV 37 22 9 6 Clinton +15.0
Boston Globe 11/02 – 11/07 400 LV 35 21 15 10 Clinton +14.0
Marist 11/02 – 11/06 658 LV 38 26 14 6 Clinton +12.0
Rasmussen 11/05 – 11/05 628 LV 34 24 15 8 Clinton +10.0
American Res. Group 10/26 – 10/29 600 LV 40 22 10 5 Clinton +18.0

And in Iowa:

Polling Data

Poll Date Sample Clinton Obama Edwards Richardson Biden Spread
RCP Average 10/17 – 11/12 28.6 24.6 19.8 8.4 4.4 Clinton +4.0
Strategic Vision (R) 11/09 – 11/12 600 LV 29 27 20 7 5 Clinton +2.0
CBS News/NY Times 11/02 – 11/12 319 LV 25 22 23 12 4 Clinton +2.0
Zogby 11/06 – 11/06 502 LV 28 25 21 9 3 Clinton +3.0
American Res. Group 10/26 – 10/29 600 LV 32 22 15 7 5 Clinton +10.0
Univ. of Iowa 10/17 – 10/24 306 LV 29 27 20 7 5 Clinton +2.0

Not a clear Hillary victory. It’s hard to say her performance in the last debate hurt her so much as the men are starting to work into her lead. I hope those Edwards numbers aren’t blips– there’s no way that guy can win a national election.

But don’t fret, Hillary zombies. The Clintons are amazing at digging up political dirt. I’m sure we’ll see a few bombs dropped on Obama and Edwards in December that will solidify her nomination.

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1 Response to “New Hampsire and Iowa”


  1. 1 Matt R.
    November 15, 2007 at 2:48 pm

    My fave Hilary stat is her rock bottom poll numbers (USA Today, Yeah I know but I got it free with the hotel room.) with married men. What does that say to you?

    The only thing Republican voters seem to agree on is their loathing for Hilary Clinton. HC is the only thing that can unify them.

    That’s why I’m picking Hilary to win the Democratic Nomination. I have complete faith in the Democratic Party’s ability to self destruct. Heck, they couldn’t beat an unpopular president in a recession, who was in office during 9/11 and who started an unpopular war.


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My name is Doc. Welcome to my blog. If you're visiting from another blog, add me to your blogroll (and I'll happily reciprocate). I have a Ph.D. in Chemistry and live in Wisconsin. If you have any questions, feel free to email me. My email is docattheautopsy at gmail. (No linking to deflate the incredible spam monsters).

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