I don’t know what the deal is. People lose their heads during this season, and I think it’s for digging in and over analyzing everything without taking a look at history.
1) New Hampshire going McCain. Not a surprise. He handily won NH in 2000, then was stomped by GWB everywhere else. It’s not a surge for McCain– he’s always done very well there. The better news is for Romney. He’s come in 2nd behind two offbeat candidates– Huck & McCain. McCain didn’t do well in Iowa, and Huck won’t do well outside of the South. If Huck can do well in Michigan and beat Romney there, he’ll have some serious momentum. But if he wins in SC, it’s to be expected in the Bible belt.
The biggest test we’ll see is Florida.
2) Hillary wins in NH. (Not by much, btw.) Again, don’t be shocked. Remember that Independents vote in NH, so they sway the vote moreso than the nutroots who run the party. McCain polls horribly in party-only primaries because he’s associated with some really anti-conservative stuff. But throw in the Independents and he sweeps.
Obama’s showing in NH was strong and should be a lesson for Hillary– Obama’s support is coming from the Left, not the center. Unfortunately the Left is where she needs to rally support to get the eventual nomination, and so far she’s gathering nothing but indignation.
Watch Kos for the reaction from the nutty base of the Democratic party, then look at the primaries. If they’re open, Hillary does well (like in NH). Closed? Then Obama or Edwards will fare much better.
3) The media controls exposure. Fox excluded Ron Paul from the debate, as well as Duncan Hunter, leaving Fred Thompson to be the big anti-amnesty guy at the table, which was a mistake on Fox’s part. I do understand that if they included Hunter, they’d have to include Ron Paul. Quite frankly, Ron Paul needs to drop out, especially in light of recent revelations. Taking money from Stormfront? Really, that’s OK, Ron?
As for ABC, they included Ron Paul, but not Hunter? Who’s making those decisions? Hunter blasted ABC about it, but few noticed. Hunter should get out an ad stating that the liberal MSM is afraid to put a real conservative on the air, but I’m afraid my guy doesn’t have the funding to do anything but a few YouTube spots.
4) Predictions: Obama’s going to crush Hillary on Super Tuesday. He’ll likely pick up Biden or Dodd as a VP running mate, and currently, I see him winning in November.
But he’ll inherit the Bush Recession, and with his new social platform, he’ll increase income tax, captial gains tax, and do some majorly stupid things on the foreign policy front, which will result in backlash in 2010 with the GOP retaking the House of Representatives. Then, in Clinton style, Obama will be a nice do-nothing figurehead for the next 6 years.