Rasmussen has McCain leading Obama in the EC for the first time this election season. The Minnesota polls from the Star-Tribune just started rolling in, and it’s a dead heat. Now, if you reference my earlier post about the Rasmussen Electoral College, you’ll notice that Minnesota was in the Likely Democrat zone. If Minnesota is moving over, what’s that say for anything that’s leaning Democrat? Or other “Likely Democrat” states? Iowa is certainly going to go over to McCain. McCain trails Obama by 2% in Washington (!). In Pennsylvania, Obama leads by 2%. McCain was down by 8% in New Jersey August 8th. We know there’s been a national swing towards McCain, so we can safely assume all numbers for McCain will go up. If McCain can pull 4% independents from Obama in New Jersey, that will put the two of them tied– in New Jersey!
If Obama is having a hard time securing usually-safe locks like New Jersey and Pennsylvania, his campaign is in shambles. And with less than two months left, there’s going to have to be one hell of an October Surprise to wreck McCain’s momentum.